Irrational Exuberance

by
Edition: 2nd
Format: Trade Paper
Pub. Date: 2006-05-09
Publisher(s): Crown Business
List Price: $17.12

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Summary

In this timely and prescient update of his celebrated 2000 bestseller, Robert Shiller returns to the topic that gained him international fame: market volatility. Having predicted the stock market collapse that began just one month after the first edition was published, he now expands the book to cover other markets that have become volatile, particularly the recently red-hot housing market. He includes a full chapter on domestic and international housing prices in historical perspective. Shiller amasses impressive evidence to support his argument that the recent housing market boom bears many similarities to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, and may eventually be followed by declining home prices for years to come. After stocks plummeted when the bubble burst in 2000, investors moved their money into housing. This precipitated the inflated real estate prices not only in America but around the world, Shiller maintains. Hence, irrational exuberance did not disappearit merely reappeared in other settings. Building on the original edition, Shiller draws out the psychological origins of volatility in financial markets, this time folding real estate into his analysis. He broadens the evidence that investing in capital markets of all kinds in the modern free-market economy is inherently unstablesubject to the profoundly human influences captured in Alan Greenspan's now-famous phrase, "irrational exuberance." As was true of its predecessor, the second edition ofIrrational Exuberanceis destined to be widely read, discussed, and debated.

Author Biography

Robert J. Shiller is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the recipient of the 2000 Commonfund Prize, awarded for Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research, for Irrational Exuberance. He is also the author of Market Volatility and Macro Markets, which won the 1996 Paul A. Samuelson Award.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables
xi
Preface to the Second Edition xiii
Preface to the First Edition, 2000 xix
Acknowledgments xxv
The Stock Market in Historical Perspective
1(10)
The Real Estate Market in Historical Perspective
11(20)
Part One Structural Factors
Precipitating Factors: The Capitalist Explosion, the Internet, and Other Events
31(25)
Amplification Mechanisms: Naturally Occurring Ponzi Processes
56(29)
Part Two Cultural Factors
The News Media
85(21)
New Era Economic Thinking
106(26)
New Eras and Bubbles around the World
132(15)
Part Three Psychological Factors
Psychological Anchors for the Market
147(10)
Herd Behavior and Epidemics
157(20)
Part Four Attempts to Rationalize Exuberance
Efficient Markets, Random Walks, and Bubbles
177(18)
Investor Learning---and Unlearning
195(12)
Part Five A Call to Action
Speculative Volatility in a Free Society
207(24)
Notes 231(40)
References 271(16)
Index 287

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