
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
by Edited by Daniel Kahneman , Paul Slovic , Amos TverskyBuy New
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Summary
Table of Contents
Preface | |
Part I. Introduction: 1. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
Part II. Representativeness: 2. Belief in the law of small numbers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
3. Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
4. On the psychology of presiction Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
5. Studies of representativeness Maya Bar-Hillel | |
6. Judgments of and by representativeness Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
Part III. Causality and Attribution: 7. Popular induction: information is not necessarily informative Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall and Harvey Reed | |
8. Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
9. Shortcomings in the attribution process: on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments Lee Ross and Craig A. Anderson | |
10. Evidential impact of base rates Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
Part IV. Availability: 11. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman | |
12. Egocentric biases in availability and attribution Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly | |
13. The availability bias in social perception and interaction Shelley E. Taylor | |
14. The simulation heuristic Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
Part V. Covariation and Control: 15. Informal covariation asssessment: data-based versus theory-based judgments Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile and Lee Ross | |
16. The illusion of control Ellen J. Langer | |
17. Test results are what you think they are Loren J. Chapman and Jean Chapman | |
18. Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities David M. Eddy | |
19. Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making Hillel J. Einhorn | |
Part VI. Overconfidence: 20. Overconfidence in case-study judgments Stuart Oskamp | |
21. A progress report on the training of probability assessors Marc Alpert and Howard Raiffa | |
22. Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff and Lawrence D. Phillips | |
23. For those condemned to study the past: heuristics and biases in hindsight Baruch Fischhoff | |
Part VII. Multistage Evaluation: 24. Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick and D. Haran | |
25. Conservatism in human information processing Ward Edwards | |
26. The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III and Cameron R. Peterson | |
27. Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory Yaacov Trope | |
Part VIII. Corrective Procedures: 28. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making Robyn M. Dawes | |
29. The vitality of mythical numbers Max Singer | |
30. Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
31. Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff | |
32. Improving inductive inference Richard E. Nesbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson and Geoffrey T. Fong | |
Part IX. Risk Perception: 33. Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff and Sarah Lichtenstein | |
Part X. Postscript: 34. On the study of statistical intuitions Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
35. Variants of uncertainty Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky | |
References | |
Index. |
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